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Pachter: Switch 'Should Easily Get to 100 Million' - VGChartz

Pachter: Switch 'Should Easily Get to 100 Million'

Pachter: Switch 'Should Easily Get to 100 Million' - Sales

by William D'Angelo , posted 6 days ago / 2,161 Views

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter speaking with Bloomberg in an interview said the Switch could sell 20 million units per year for the next three years and should easily sell 100 million units. 

100 million units sold lifetime would put sales on par with Nintendo's best-selling home console, the Wii, which sold a little over 101 million units. 

"The Switch can sell 20 million units annually for the next three years," said Pachter. "So it should easily get to 100 million."

Morningstar Investment Services analyst Kazunori Ito added the Switch might have a longer life cycle than consoles traditionally do. This is due to it being a home console and a handheld.

"This is typically where sales begin to peak out, but it looks like the Switch may have a longer life cycle," said Ito. "With a desktop console and a portable player in a single machine, Nintendo has a very effective platform for selling game software."

Analysts are estimating Nintendo sell 9.46 million units of the Switch and 64.73 million games for the Switch for the quarter ending December 31, 2019. 

The average of sales for the current fiscal year from four analysts put Switch sales at 19.07 million units. This is above Nintendo's forecast of 18 million. 

The Nintendo Switch has 43,004,575 units through November 23, according to VGChartz estimates


A life-long and avid gamer, William D'Angelo was first introduced to VGChartz in 2007. After years of supporting the site, he was brought on in 2010 as a junior analyst, working his way up to lead analyst in 2012. He has expanded his involvement in the gaming community by producing content on his own YouTube channel and Twitch channel dedicated to gaming Let's Plays and tutorials. You can contact the author at wdangelo@vgchartz.com or on Twitter @TrunksWD.


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31 Comments

shikamaru317 (6 days ago)

Under 100m confirmed xD


shikamaru317 (6 days ago)

On a more serious note, he is right, an average of 20m units per year for the next 3 years should be easily doable, especially with price cuts. Only thing that could possibly stop Switch from hitting 100m is if Switch 2 is a 2021 launch I'd say, that could hurt Switch 1's 2022 sales quite a bit.


  • +10
Marth (6 days ago)

Well then the dream is dead. Switch had a good run but now Pachter jinxed it.


trunkswd (6 days ago)

Comments on Pachter articles never disappoint. He has a stigma that is predictions are always wrong.


  • +7
JRPGfan (6 days ago)

@Trunkswd thats basically because he makes 3 types of comments on things : the crazy (for attention), the obvious (which doesnt need saying) and the kinda sensible thing (which then turns out wrong more often than not).


  • +2
Bofferbrauer2 (6 days ago)

Can somebody remember his original expectations on the Switch?


  • 0
RolStoppable (6 days ago)

On January 17th 2017 Michael Pachter predicted Switch sales of 1m units for the fiscal year ending March 2017 and a further 4m in the fiscal year ending March 2018.
http://fortune.com/2017/01/17/nintendo-switch-sales/

On July 8th 2017 Michael Pachter can see Switch selling 50m lifetime, but can't see 100m units because that would be 20m per year.
http://gametransfers.com/micheal-patcher-nintendo-switch-wont-be-as-successful-as-wii/


  • +3
RolStoppable (6 days ago)

The comments section hates links, so if there isn't a ghost post from me showing up, here are Pachter's predictions without links. In Januarey 2017 he predicted Switch to sell 1m units during the fiscal year ending March 2017 and another 4m during the fiscal year ending March 2018. In July 2018 he couldn't see Switch selling 100m because that would be 20m per year; instead he went with a generous 50m lifetime.


  • +2
RolStoppable (6 days ago)

Edit by way of post: It should say July 2017 instead of July 2018 in my previous post.


  • +1
Bofferbrauer2 (5 days ago)

So in short, at first he expected a Wii U-like flop, then something along the lines of the Xbox One and only now he thinks it could rival the Wii... well, let's see what his next prediction on the matter is in 2021...


  • 0
Naum (6 days ago)

ohh well guess the Switch will fall of a cliff after all and sell negative numbers...


SanAndreasX (6 days ago)

Breaking news: Switch to be discontinued July 2020 due to an unexpected crash in sales.


Bofferbrauer2 (6 days ago)

Damn, he really had to jinx the Switch, now had he?


thismeintiel (5 days ago)

99.9M units confirmed.


Amnesia (6 days ago)

It won't hold so long then, there will be 2 technical gen of difference between Switch and the 2 others. It is already today barely comparable against PS4/XBOX1, but against PS5/Scarlett the Switch will be graphicaly too much obsolete, no way it sells 20 M in 2021.


RolStoppable (5 days ago)

Neither the PS5 or Scarlett will be able to run Nintendo games.


  • +3
JWeinCom (5 days ago)

But how much will people care? What "a generation of graphics" means is way different than what it used to mean. The difference between the NES and SNES was night and day. The difference between PS3 and PS4 is morning and midafternoon at best. Viewed as a home console, the Switch is already graphically obsolete, but that's not really stopping it.


  • 0
curl-6 (5 days ago)

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


uran10 (5 days ago)

crap....


method114 (6 days ago)

I believe it. Switch is a great console first Nintendo console I've been interested in, in a long time.


JRPGfan (6 days ago)

I think 2019 is the peak for the Switch.... but even if sales slow down abit in the next few years, it could still end up doing 100m. However I doubt it does so "easily", it wont just fly by 100m imo.


z101 (5 days ago)

Peak sales? Switch did not even had a price reduction.

2020 or 21 will see probably Switch peak sales, but 2019 surely not.

Anyway the Meme is that "Pachter is always wrong" (in reality his "predictions" have a less than 50% chance to come true) so Switch sales must break down now or go up much higher.


  • 0
Shiken (5 days ago)

I doubt it will be any more difficult than it was for the PS4 TBH.


  • +1
peachbuggy (5 days ago)

Pachter is a retard. He goes from being a troll to stating the obvious. Apart from the obvious few "predictions", he is wrong 90% of the time. Just about everyone on this site is a better analyst than him, yet he gets $$$$'s for these obvious "predictions". I'm actually amazed he is given an ounce of credibility in the industry and that he is still employed if i'm honest.


Tridrakious (5 days ago)

Well great, now it won't hit 100m... Thanks Michael


PAOerfulone (5 days ago)

Ah son of a bitch. Well there goes that!


Metroid33slayer (5 days ago)

He's not always wrong, I remember in 2012 he said the wii u wouldn't sell more than 40 million and he was right and also said the 3ds would see a massive decline from the original ds.


JWeinCom (5 days ago)

Broken clock is right twice a day.

But honestly, those are hardly predictions. The Wii U was met with clear negativity out of the gate. Any sensible person would realize it was going to do poorly (for the record I thought it would do really well, but I'm a biased fanboy).

Pretty much anything following the original DS was going to see at least a moderate decline. Depending on when exactly he said it, the writing may have already been on the wall.


  • +1
DonFerrari (6 days ago)

He just jinxed it. And would be very strange to see it selling 20M a year for the next 3 years.


SwitchUP (6 days ago)

This will be the 1st time pachter is right. This one is easy though, so.....


Shiken (5 days ago)

His predictions have been right before. He only goes two different directions with them after all. Half baked and often so far out there to be even close to correct...and so obvious I wonder why I have not bothered to become an analyst myself.


  • +3